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Insights

The latest news and events at Maples Teesdale

| 1 minute read

The problem of pricing

With the overall cooling of the economy, there is an argument (principally from buyers) that the effect on pricing of industrial and logistics assets has been particularly pronounced. That would come as little surprise, given the red-hot state of this market at the start of 2022 - the bigger they come, the harder they fall. 

On the other hand, while I&L stock remains in short supply, demand from occupiers continues, and interest rates have not (yet) resulted in lenders forcing sales, there remain strong underlying fundamentals that those who hold warehousing stock can argue underpin a resilience, which means that values in this market should not have fallen as hard as other asset classes.

Shell's withdrawal of the Opal and Pearl portfolios shows how difficult it is to align the expectations of buyers and sellers, when fewer deals make it harder to call 'market value' that both are happy with for their transaction. If sales do not progress, it becomes increasingly difficult for anyone to know what the 'right' pricing is, and we end up with stalemate. 

React News observes that actions like Shell's can also create distrust, where bidders are not always convinced that there is a genuine sale in the offing, and that they are being used only to test the market - that only makes completed deals, and therefore market pricing, harder to track down. There are no easy solutions where overall market conditions make pricing (in particular) tricky, but 'distrust' is a fundamentally bad starting point, whatever the state of the economy.

Pricing for UK real estate has been falling since the start of summer as debt costs rise, although valuations are lagging behind coalface intel.

Tags

charles elgood, commercial real estate, industrial & logistics, industrial, logistics, warehouses